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Financial projection starter model (Excel)
A small, fully linked three-year projection for a fictional business: change the assumptions and watch revenue, EBITDA and margins update.
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What is inside
- Assumptions
- Every input in one place, coloured blue so you know what to change.
- Projection
- Three-year revenue, costs, EBITDA and margins — all formulas, no hard-coded numbers.
- Read me
- What the model does, its simplifications and exercises to try.
What is inside
The model projects three years for "Chai Corner", a fictional chain of tea kiosks. Everything is driven by a short list of assumptions:
- number of kiosks and new kiosks opened each year
- cups sold per kiosk per day, days open per year, and price per cup
- ingredient cost as a share of revenue
- staff, rent and other fixed costs per kiosk
Change any blue cell on the Assumptions sheet and every number on the Projection sheet updates.
Deliberate simplifications
To keep the model readable, it leaves out taxes, depreciation, financing and working capital, and assumes new kiosks run for the full year they open. Adding those is a good exercise once you are comfortable with the basics.
Exercises to try
- What price per cup is needed for a 20% EBITDA margin in year 1?
- Add a row for annual price increases and link it into the revenue calculation.
- Add a "best case / base case / worst case" switch for cups per day.
- Add a payback calculation for opening one new kiosk with an up-front cost you choose.
The model is original and free to use for learning. The company and all numbers are fictional.